The Commercial RE time bomb

Commercial RE is something I have always wanted to invest in. After reading this article I wonder. 2 to 3 trillion in bad commercial RE debt that must be turned over. WOW that's a big number. I am hoping to be able to take advantage of some firesale pricing when it hits bottom, but based on Denningers opinion it may never come back. I have seen the for lease signs popping up all over recently. Even in class A space in very prominent areas there must be a 25% vacancy factor. As things continue to get worse I wonder how low it can really go. I see a bunch of available industrial and warehouse space. Who the hell is going to be looking for that type of space the next 5 to 10 years. What about all the car dealerships going out of business. What type of business, other than a car dealer has use for this type of space. What about all the Big box retail stuff. Who is going to take over the vacated K Mart building, or empty ACME supermarket. What will happen to all the employees of these vacated ventures? Their lack of spending will further continue the downward spiral. Never in my lifetime have I seen such an economic decay. The media is seeing light at the end of the tunnel. I wonder if it's an oncoming train.

Office Vacancies Rise

I think that one of the biggest opportunities to gain wealth in this coming Depression is in the commercial Real Estate market. Many commercial RE investors will not be able to cover their nuts as vacancies increase. I know my landlord at the car lot owns a bunch of industrial and retail properties. Many of his tenants(myself included) are struggling to pay the rent, and are giving notice they cannot continue operations. I am pretty certain there will be commercial foreclosures ramping up the next few years. Since you can't live in a commercial piece demand will be low, and banks will be offering firesale pricing, and in house financing to get these off the books. If I can get a fully leveraged break even with a bunch of upside potential, I'm in. Here's hoping it continues to get worse.(It's hard to swallow as I write that, but a true contrarian wants to see it hit the fan.)