Is this a "great recession" or a "soft depression"?
Difficult to tell, but here's some food for thought:1)In 2007, 51 percent of graduating college students had jobs lined up before graduation. This year, less than 20 percent had jobs. 2) State income tax receipts from January 2008 – April 2009 were down 26 percent from the year before, and money wired back to homes in Mexico from America is down 20 percent.
3) 51 million people on social security, 12 million people on SS disability, 34 million people subsiding on food stamps.
4) Seven million people are collecting unemployment benefits, and another eight million are unemployed and collecting nothing! There are 38 million part-time or self employed workers, and 2.4 million people in jail (1 in 100 adults).
By every measure, whether or not we are including the government's unemployment rate (9.5%), Shadow Stats unemployment rate (16.5%) or my personal estimate (12%), there is no doubt that times are bad. Housing numbers, horrible.
Credit card defaults? The evidence is there, too.
My take...we are still in a great, great recession that is about 2 news stories away from officially being in a depression. What could take us to that point? Your thoughts are welcome here...
